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Are You Invested Too Much In The US Market?

Most individual investors have the overwhelming majority of their equity investments in the US stock market.  Investment professionals have historically encouraged this allocation under the slogan of ‘efficient frontier’, that a domestic overweight portfolio will reduce their risk and improve their returns over time. 

The problem with that approach is that it ignores both recent and future economic trends.  In fact, the case can be made that you are in fact reducing your potential returns and increasing your risk with a domestic heavy portfolio. 

 The chart below shows the market capitalizations of the US and non-US stock markets over the past ten years.  As you can see, the value of the US stock market as a percentage of total world stock market valuation has been steadily decreasing.   Had you been overweight international markets past ten years you would have been better off. 

Some of that trend has no doubt been due to a decline in the value of our currency, but the majority of the change is do to the shifting sources of economic growth in the world.

A fair question might be, “that was the past ten years; how do you know the same trends will continue in the future?”  I can’t answer that question with certainty, but with our economy in a mini-great depression, our budget deficits and debt growing by the trillions, and emerging markets continuing their torrid economic growth, it seems apparent to me a turnaround in that trend is unlikely anytime soon.

Protect yourself and be smart.  Take another look at your allocation to international markets, and especially emerging ones.

us-market-cap

New ETFs This Week

This past week saw a highly diverse group of new ETFs launch, a continuation of the rapid development in the space as investors demand access to previously unattainable asset classes, countries, niche markets, or investment strategies.  Investors have taken notice of the powerful ability of ETFs to gain exposure to new areas and ETF providers are responding in an attempt to quell investors’ insatiable appetite.  This week’s offerings display innovation in the industry:

  • June 30th: MacroShares’ Housing ETFs, the first ETFs tracking US housing, began trading on the NYSE Arca. As discussed in a previous blog, the bullish MacroShares Major Metro Housing Up (UMM) ETF seeks to deliver three times the cumulative percentage change in the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-10 Home Price Index while the bearish MacroShares Major Metro Housing Down (DMM) attempts to deliver three times the inverse cumulative percentage change in the index.
  • July 1st: Javelin launched the Dow Jones Islamic Market International Index Fund (JVS) which seeks to mimic the performance of the Dow Jones Islamic Market Titans 100 Index. This index is comprised of 100 companies from outside the US that abide by Islamic law and finance rules which include avoiding companies involved with alcohol, gaming, pork products, highly leveraged companies, etc.
  • July 2nd: ProShares launched the first ETF providing short and leveraged exposure to the Russell 3000 Index, which tracks the 3,000 largest companies in the U.S. The ProShares Ultra Russell 3000 ETF (UWC) aims to return 200% of the daily performance of the Russell 3000 Index. The ProShares UltraShort Russell 3000 ETF (TWQ) attempts to return 200% of the inverse daily performance of the Russell 3000 Index.

 In addition, on July 2nd, iShares reached an agreement with Peru’s pension funds allowing for the creation of the first Peruvian ETF in the US, the iShares MSCI All Peru Capped Index Fund.  The Peruvian pension funds will essentially exchange shares of local companies in exchange for shares of the ETF.  Because of the lack of liquidity in the Peruvian market, this arrangement allows Barclays to access shares of companies that would otherwise be extremely difficult to acquire.  Peru’s Lima General Index is up 86% so far this year.

ICI Fund Flow Update

Recently the Investment Company Institute (www.ici.org) released May statistics on fund flows for mutual funds and exchange traded funds. Here’s what we gleaned from the May and prior months’ numbers:

Assets held in mutual funds and ETFs have risen dramatically since the end of February, owing to a combination of appreciation in market value and net capital inflows (net share creations).

In May both ETFs and mutual funds extended their asset growth at rates similar to March and April. For the three month period, ETF assets grew by 29% vs. 22% for non-money market mutual funds.

Interestingly, roughly 20% of ETF asset growth during the period was due to net capital inflows into ETFs, whereas only about 7% was due to net new share creations in mutual funds.

Also worth noting, 95% of March/April/May net mutual fund share creations were in the form of bond funds. 46% of ETF share creations were of the bond variety.

Assets, Share Creations                 Mutual Funds           ETFs
(billions of dollars)              
        Month     Month
       Non-  on     on
     Money   Money  Month     Month
   All   Market   Market  Chg    All  Chg
               
Feb    9,038    3,890     5,148         450  
Mar    9,249    3,816     5,433 5.5%       482 7.2%
Apr    9,700    3,792     5,909 8.8%       530 9.9%
May  10,074    3,767     6,307 6.7%       582 9.9%
               
Change, 2/28 – 5/31    1,036      (123)     1,159         132  
  11.5% -3.2%     22.5%     29.4%  
               
                        
         

Investing in China with ETFs

From 2003 through 2008, China’s annual GDP growth rate ranged from 9.1% to 12.1%, hitting $4.3 trillion in 2008. By 2020, the size of the Chinese economy is expected to be the second largest in the world behind the US.

China’s economy has created a significant middle class and, as a result, a consumer economy is emerging.  In addition, the manufacturing and service industries in China are undergoing significant development, transformation and growth.

Prior to 2004, the only way to gain exposure to China through ETFs was via a broad emerging markets fund.  iShares then brought the first China-specific ETF to market with its FTSE/Xinjua China 25 Index Fund ETF. The ETF now holds nearly $6 billion in assets and leads a pack of six relatively broad ETFs covering China. In addition, there is a single ETF covering small-capitalization Chinese companies, another covering real estate and two covering China’s currency.

While the selection of vehicles for investing in China has expanded significantly over the past five years, look for continued innovation as the ETF industry develops, as the Chinese economy grows, and as investment access in China improves.

Below is a list of ETFs commonly used to access the Chinese market today:

Exposure   Sponsor   Fund     Ticker
China only ishares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 FXI
China only SSgA SPDRS S&P China GXC
China only PowerShares Golden Dragon USX China PGJ
China only Claymore China Small Cap Index ETF HAO
BRIC Claymore BRIC ETF EEB
BRIC ishares MSCI BRIC BIK
Chindia ishares FTSE Chindia FCHI
Chindia First Trust ISE Chindia FNI
Real Estate Claymore China Real Estate TAO
Currency WisdomTree Yuan Fund CNY

Replace Your Tech Stock Fund

When most people think of ETFs, they usually think of broadly diversified index ETFs.  That’s what we generally use at The ETF Store.  Most investors will do well by using those ETFs to build a well diversified portfolio that includes investments in a wide range of asset classes.

I recognize that isn’t good enough for a lot of people.  They want to buy that hot tech stock they see on Cramer every night.  Or they think Apple’s new product is so hot they need to get in before everyone else in the world figures out what Steve Jobs is going to come out with.  If it’s not a hot stock, it’s the hottest tech stock fund highlighted in Money Magazine.

ETFs can now offer an elegant solution to the tech stock jockey who has to have his Google, Apple and Microsoft.  The iShares Dow Jones U.S. Technology Sector Index Fund (ticker IYW) is an ETF from iShares that is focused on the U.S. Tech sector.  It has a heavy dose of the biggest tech stocks (Microsoft was over 11% of fund assets at 3/31/09, Apple 7%, and Google 6%) with all the benefits of mutual fund-type diversification.    What makes it even better is you get the added benefit of transparency, low costs and possible tax savings offered by ETFs.

So if you need to watch Cramer or read Money Magazine, enjoy.  If you have to have tech stocks in your portfolio, though, look to ETFs.

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