ETF Prime Archive

Economic (March) Madness

In the spirit of March Madness, The Motley Fool decided to have some fun creating a “Blame Bracket” to determine who is most responsible for the economic madness we’ve all been experiencing over the past year.  While the “committee” did an admirable job selecting the field, there were surely a few disappointed “teams” left out of the dance (short sellers and the Nixon administration for canceling the Bretton Woods system come to mind).  Nevertheless, the tourney got underway without any monumental upsets in the first round including Wall Street sailing past Main Street and the SEC outlasting Fannie and Freddie.  Now down to the Elite Eight and with the clock striking midnight on the Cinderallas, the remaining heavyweights will battle it out for the right to wear the recession’s crown.  Here are the predictions:

Elite Eight contests:  The Media over Bernie Madoff, Repealers of the Glass-Steagall Act over Inventors of Derivatives, the SEC over Congress, and Wall Street over Geeks Bearing Formulas

Final Four:  Wall Street over The Media and the SEC over Repealers of the Glass-Steagall Act

Champion:  Wall Street over the SEC

So, there you have it.  At the end of the day, it was Wall Street who over-leveraged, Wall Street who blindly used derivatives and relied on quantitative models without understanding the risks involved, Wall Street CEOs who misled the media on the financial health of their companies, and Wall Street who used its political influence to limit the regulatory power of the SEC.

ETF Dividends

There is a brief story yesterday in the USA today explaining how ETF dividends work. 

In addition to trading on exchanges like stocks, ETFs also share other features.  The process for paying dividends is just like stocks: there is a date of record (the date in which the owners of the shares who will receive the dividend are determined), an ex-dividend date (the date an ETF is traded without the benefit of the current dividend is attached to the share), and a payments date (dividend is paid).

An Inconvenient Debt

A day after I suggested ignoring all the talking heads on TV and just watching M2, I came across this hilarious youtube clip.  I’ll admit I had never even heard of Glenn Beck before, but he’s explaining in a more creative way what is going on with M2.

Ignore TV, Watch M2

The media is full of noise from talking heads debating the merits of TARP, bank bailouts, gov’t debt buybacks, foreclosure prevention, stimulus checks, Wall Street bonus babies, etc.  It’s impossible to turn on the television and not find someone who is an expert on what the Treasury and Fed should be doing.

I don’t think anyone knows how things are going to play out, and even Bernanke is making this up as he goes.

So I take what most people say with a grain of salt.  But I do like to listen to statistics.  And there is one statistic that tells us a lot about how a portfolio should be constructed over the next few years.  That statistic is the M2 money supply.

M2 is generally regarded as the best measure of the total amount of money in our economy.  And there has historically been a relationship between long-term money supply growth and price inflation.

The Fed publishes the weekly money supply at its website.  As of last week, the seasonally adjusted level of M2 was growing at annualized rates in excess of 15% over the previous 3 and 6 month periods.  15% is a big number and should tell an informed investor that they should include some inflation hedges in their portfolio.

So don’t get too caught up in the daily debates on TV, including whether or not we are going into a deflationary spiral or headed for inflation.  Keep an eye on M2.  Don’t be surprised if it starts to acclerate.

TIPS: An Important Inflation Hedge

With massive stimulus programs currently getting geared up, along with related record-ripping government borrowing, does an average inflation rate of just one percent over the next ten years sound plausible? Maybe not, but that’s precisely what the current yield spread between ten-year Treasuries (2.93%) and ten-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) (1.87%) would imply.

While nobody can pick market price or interest rate tops and bottoms, there are a few things that we can “know” with relative certainty: Over the next several years borrowing by the U.S. government will be of historic proportions and will exert upward pressure on interest rates. Meanwhile, the gaining of traction by tsunami-sized economic stimulus programs will translate into a significant source of demand for commodities and raw materials, as well as for goods and services overall.

Exposure to commodities as demand recovers can help cushion the effects of a potentially forceful inflationary wave rippling through the economy. But there’s an additional important tool that can be deployed to help further protect against the ravages of inflation: Treasury Inflation Protected Securities.

TIPS are designed to protect principal while ensuring a return above the rate of inflation, using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as the measure of inflation. 

The two primary elements of TIPS are a) periodic payments of a fixed rate of interest against a principal amount that is b) adjusted according to change in the CPI. As inflation goes up, for example, so does the principal value against which interest payments are calculated. At maturity, the holder gets the higher of the CPI-adjusted principal level and the original issue principal or “par” value. Being indexed against a relatively broad measure of inflation, TIPS can serve as an important inflation-cushioning complement to commodity holdings. Unlike commodities, though, TIPS also generate current income.

In the near term, the risk of deflation (or falling prices) is still a real risk to the economy and to the performance of TIPS. Each passing day, though, brings us closer to implementation of demand and inflation-driving stimulus programs and related interest rate pressures from exploding government borrowing programs.

Fortunately, there are currently two ETFs that provide investors with low-cost, diversified exposure to TIPS. iShares TIP provides exposure to U.S. TIPS with a yield currently slightly above 2% and an average maturity of just under nine years (Barclays TIPS Bond Fund).  StateStreet’s WIP, with a yield of slightly less than 2.5%, provides exposure to international TIPS (SPDR DB International Government Inflation-Protected Bond ETF). StateStreet also has a global TIPS ETF currently in registration, awaiting SEC approval.

In general, and certainly against the current economic backdrop, TIPS (in combination with commodities) can play an important diversification role in investment portfolios.